Delaying UMNO’s Elections: Exchanges With Din Merican
Delaying UMNO’s Elections: Exchanges With Din Merican
Summary: DM: Abdullah’s delaying UMNO’s elections is politically shrewd; it would enable him to consolidate his position within the party and buy time to mend the economy. It may however be a case of too little, too late. He has neither the political will nor the leadership skills to execute such a quick turnaround.
MBM: We are headed for a turbulent patch, and the captain’s skill is severely wanting. Fortunately Malaysia is sufficiently advanced that it could sustain itself on automatic pilot. Let us hope that Abdullah just stands there and not do something, especially if is something stupid.
Dear Bakri:
You may have read that Pak Lah postponed UMNO’s triennial Leadership Convention, scheduled for next year, till after the next general election. He said, “This was to ensure undivided and full concentration was accorded to the general election,” and added, “[T]his is a procedure and policy of the party and has been done twice previously.… [It is] beneficial for the party as it could give all full concentration to national development and implementing projects in the interest of the rakyat.”
His move did not surprise me. I hope he would not defer next month’s UMNO General Assembly. He is being politically pragmatic; he fully expects the delegates to be rough on him for “sleeping on the job,” as exemplified by Zaid Ibrahim’s recent comments. Similar tough comments have come from Shahrir Samad on the ECM Libra-Avenue Securities merger involving Abdullah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and his close associate, Kalimullah Hassan.
Tengku Razaleigh too made some strong remarks especially regarding the implementation of the 9MP. In an interview he said, “[N]othing has happened even in the 9MP. None of the projects has got off the ground. You name me one.”
Abdullah had neglected the economy; he had been too busy enjoying the perks of office by his frequent foreign trips and ceremonial engagements with ASEAN, OIC and NAM. He was also distracted by the personal problems with his late wife. He now wants to buy some time to revive the economy before facing his party and the people in 2008.
He is just deluding himself into believing that he could execute a turnaround in the economy in such a short time. He just does not have what it takes to lead. He is simply not credible and does not have the political will to make things happen, and happen quickly.
Razaleigh had this to say on Badawi’s attempts to reform the system, “Well, we can wait until 300 years later. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, but it’s going to take a long time.… You talk about fighting corruption – you may catch one or two and that’s it but so many more are corrupt. But let us get on with something for the people – to get jobs and investments while you carry on tinkering with all these things which are going to take time.” In short, we need to jumpstart the nation’s economy and boost investors’ confidence.
In the short term delaying the leadership convention is a shrewd move. It would enable him to purge the party of Mahathir’s supporters. Badawi hopes that with his team in place and the economy on the mend, he can protect his legacy and be re-elected.
To me his latest maneuver is a manifestation of his weakness within the party. He can no longer hide that fact. Criticisms from Tun Mahathir and others have obviously taken their toll. Badawi’s postponing the leadership conference is merely an attempt at trying to capitalize on his incumbency.
Whether it will work remains to be seen. It would depend on the economy and investors’ confidence. It would be tough as the IMF-World Bank projects slower growth globally in 2007 and 08. He may not be able carry the civil servants with him this time, as he had denied them their pay raise. The country is also hobbled by rising prices of basic foods. Price controls succeeded only in more rules and regulations leading to supply bottlenecks, price distortions, and corruption.
Fortunately oil prices have eased, giving him room to reduce the pump price if he so chooses. The recent substantial oil price hikes were very unpopular, as expected. The surprise was that his advisors did not anticipate that!
With slower global growth hurting our exports, Abdullah will have no choice but to stimulate the domestic sector. Fortunately he has some flexibility here as the fiscal deficit has improved. The question is whether the effects of such stimulation would be felt by election time. It may be a case of too little, too late.
He may be politically astute in postponing the UMNO elections but good politics alone would not compensate for his inept handling of the economy. He should seek wider counsel by listening to his party elders, the business community, and the struggling men and women in the Malay street instead.
That is my take, what is yours?
Thanks, Din
M. Bakri Musa’s reply:
Dear Din:
It is hard to find any silver lining to this dark cloud that is Abdullah Badawi. You are being charitable to him, and that is appropriate during this Ramadan season. We are in for turbulent weather ahead, so better buckle-up.
Our pilot may have spent decades in the cockpit, but only as the flight engineer or first officer. In the strict Asian tradition of deferring to authority, he is used to only taking orders from the captain but never having to make the tough decisions. Thus far he is content enjoying being adulated as the captain, and marveling at the controls available to him.
He barely understands those levers except at the mechanical level. Move that yoke towards him and the plane will go up; push it away and the plane will nose down. He does not comprehend the underlying physics or aerodynamics.
Fortunately the modern aircraft is well designed and sturdy, with many redundant systems and failsafe features such that even a monkey could not crash it. The only design not factored in is for some maniac intent on crashing the machine onto a tower.
Malaysia is sufficiently advanced with a robust private sector. Malaysians are also more educated and better informed. The nation is akin to a 747 jet, even an idiot could not to crash it; only a determined crazy jihadist could. Badawi is closer to the former, not the latter. Malaysia should count its blessings in that respect.
Abdullah’s courtiers are content humoring their man, and he is enthralled with being a “show captain.” That would prevent him from wrecking too much havoc. Malaysia has an adequate autopilot to pull it through the rough patches. It would not be pretty, but survivable.
Malaysians may be exasperated with Badawi but I do not envisage a Thailand solution. Malaysians are too smart to let that happen.
I am ever mindful that with all the criticisms heaped upon him, Abdullah might just be tempted to do something just to show that he is in control. The instinct would be to, “Just don’t stand there, do something!” That would be dangerous as he could wreck considerable damage by doing something inappropriate. I would rather that he would not do anything but just stand there!
Unfortunately while Abdullah is enthralled with being the tenth sultan, his family, the “Fourth Floor boys,” and their cronies are busy plundering the nation.
There is of course a world of difference between merely surviving and thriving. If Vietnam were to thrive while Malaysia merely survived, then the knives would be out. By then however the old man would be thinking of his retirement and the Hereafter. A few perks and a Tunship, and he could be easily be persuaded to leave, especially if we promise him a royal send off!
I do not share your optimism, or more correctly your hope, on Badawi. I am however optimistic on Malaysians. They will continue ahead regardless of what the government does or does not do. Of course it would be better if the government were there to spur and help them.
Abdullah is secure in his ignorance. We should however not let up in our criticisms. Eventually only his courtier and cheerleaders would think that their man is donned in samping sutra. Everyone else could plainly see that he is wrapped in only tattered bark loincloth, essentially naked.
Malaysia survived the communist insurgency and the May 1969 riot; it will also survive Badawi’s ineptness. The magnitude of the lost opportunity would be significant, and would be borne primarily by today’s young. It is this that angers me most, and spurs me to be tough on his leadership, or rather lack of one.