Delaying UMNO’s Elections: Exchanges With Din Merican

Summary: DM: Abdullah’s delaying UMNO’s elections is politically shrewd; it would enable him to consolidate his position within the party and buy time to mend the economy. It may however be a case of too little, too late. He has neither the political will nor the leadership skills to execute such a quick turnaround.
MBM: We are headed for a turbulent patch, and the captain’s skill is severely wanting. Fortunately Malaysia is sufficiently advanced that it could sustain itself on automatic pilot. Let us hope that Abdullah just stands there and not do something, especially if is something stupid.

Dear Bakri:

You may have read that Pak Lah postponed UMNO’s triennial Leadership Convention, scheduled for next year, till after the next general election. He said, “This was to ensure undivided and full concentration was accorded to the general election,” and added, “[T]his is a procedure and policy of the party and has been done twice previously.… [It is] beneficial for the party as it could give all full concentration to national development and implementing projects in the interest of the rakyat.”

His move did not surprise me. I hope he would not defer next month’s UMNO General Assembly. He is being politically pragmatic; he fully expects the delegates to be rough on him for “sleeping on the job,” as exemplified by Zaid Ibrahim’s recent comments. Similar tough comments have come from Shahrir Samad on the ECM Libra-Avenue Securities merger involving Abdullah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and his close associate, Kalimullah Hassan.

Tengku Razaleigh too made some strong remarks especially regarding the implementation of the 9MP. In an interview he said, “[N]othing has happened even in the 9MP. None of the projects has got off the ground. You name me one.”

Abdullah had neglected the economy; he had been too busy enjoying the perks of office by his frequent foreign trips and ceremonial engagements with ASEAN, OIC and NAM. He was also distracted by the personal problems with his late wife. He now wants to buy some time to revive the economy before facing his party and the people in 2008.

He is just deluding himself into believing that he could execute a turnaround in the economy in such a short time. He just does not have what it takes to lead. He is simply not credible and does not have the political will to make things happen, and happen quickly.

Razaleigh had this to say on Badawi’s attempts to reform the system, “Well, we can wait until 300 years later. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, but it’s going to take a long time.… You talk about fighting corruption – you may catch one or two and that’s it but so many more are corrupt. But let us get on with something for the people – to get jobs and investments while you carry on tinkering with all these things which are going to take time.” In short, we need to jumpstart the nation’s economy and boost investors’ confidence.

In the short term delaying the leadership convention is a shrewd move. It would enable him to purge the party of Mahathir’s supporters. Badawi hopes that with his team in place and the economy on the mend, he can protect his legacy and be re-elected.

To me his latest maneuver is a manifestation of his weakness within the party. He can no longer hide that fact. Criticisms from Tun Mahathir and others have obviously taken their toll. Badawi’s postponing the leadership conference is merely an attempt at trying to capitalize on his incumbency.

Whether it will work remains to be seen. It would depend on the economy and investors’ confidence. It would be tough as the IMF-World Bank projects slower growth globally in 2007 and 08. He may not be able carry the civil servants with him this time, as he had denied them their pay raise. The country is also hobbled by rising prices of basic foods. Price controls succeeded only in more rules and regulations leading to supply bottlenecks, price distortions, and corruption.

Fortunately oil prices have eased, giving him room to reduce the pump price if he so chooses. The recent substantial oil price hikes were very unpopular, as expected. The surprise was that his advisors did not anticipate that!

With slower global growth hurting our exports, Abdullah will have no choice but to stimulate the domestic sector. Fortunately he has some flexibility here as the fiscal deficit has improved. The question is whether the effects of such stimulation would be felt by election time. It may be a case of too little, too late.

He may be politically astute in postponing the UMNO elections but good politics alone would not compensate for his inept handling of the economy. He should seek wider counsel by listening to his party elders, the business community, and the struggling men and women in the Malay street instead.

That is my take, what is yours?

Thanks, Din

M. Bakri Musa’s reply:

Dear Din:

It is hard to find any silver lining to this dark cloud that is Abdullah Badawi. You are being charitable to him, and that is appropriate during this Ramadan season. We are in for turbulent weather ahead, so better buckle-up.

Our pilot may have spent decades in the cockpit, but only as the flight engineer or first officer. In the strict Asian tradition of deferring to authority, he is used to only taking orders from the captain but never having to make the tough decisions. Thus far he is content enjoying being adulated as the captain, and marveling at the controls available to him.

He barely understands those levers except at the mechanical level. Move that yoke towards him and the plane will go up; push it away and the plane will nose down. He does not comprehend the underlying physics or aerodynamics.

Fortunately the modern aircraft is well designed and sturdy, with many redundant systems and failsafe features such that even a monkey could not crash it. The only design not factored in is for some maniac intent on crashing the machine onto a tower.

Malaysia is sufficiently advanced with a robust private sector. Malaysians are also more educated and better informed. The nation is akin to a 747 jet, even an idiot could not to crash it; only a determined crazy jihadist could. Badawi is closer to the former, not the latter. Malaysia should count its blessings in that respect.

Abdullah’s courtiers are content humoring their man, and he is enthralled with being a “show captain.” That would prevent him from wrecking too much havoc. Malaysia has an adequate autopilot to pull it through the rough patches. It would not be pretty, but survivable.

Malaysians may be exasperated with Badawi but I do not envisage a Thailand solution. Malaysians are too smart to let that happen.

I am ever mindful that with all the criticisms heaped upon him, Abdullah might just be tempted to do something just to show that he is in control. The instinct would be to, “Just don’t stand there, do something!” That would be dangerous as he could wreck considerable damage by doing something inappropriate. I would rather that he would not do anything but just stand there!

Unfortunately while Abdullah is enthralled with being the tenth sultan, his family, the “Fourth Floor boys,” and their cronies are busy plundering the nation.

There is of course a world of difference between merely surviving and thriving. If Vietnam were to thrive while Malaysia merely survived, then the knives would be out. By then however the old man would be thinking of his retirement and the Hereafter. A few perks and a Tunship, and he could be easily be persuaded to leave, especially if we promise him a royal send off!

I do not share your optimism, or more correctly your hope, on Badawi. I am however optimistic on Malaysians. They will continue ahead regardless of what the government does or does not do. Of course it would be better if the government were there to spur and help them.

Abdullah is secure in his ignorance. We should however not let up in our criticisms. Eventually only his courtier and cheerleaders would think that their man is donned in samping sutra. Everyone else could plainly see that he is wrapped in only tattered bark loincloth, essentially naked.

Malaysia survived the communist insurgency and the May 1969 riot; it will also survive Badawi’s ineptness. The magnitude of the lost opportunity would be significant, and would be borne primarily by today’s young. It is this that angers me most, and spurs me to be tough on his leadership, or rather lack of one.

Chapter 6: Attempts At Reforms (Cont’d)

National Brains Trust Report 2002

Less than a year after the release of Education Development 2001-2010, a high-level committee, dubbed the National Brains Trust, released its report, Master Plan for the Knowledge-Based Economy. It contains 136 recommendations, of which 64 relate to human resources, and half of that (32) concern education. I will discuss those 32 recommendations, but first some comments on the committee.

It was led by one Nordin Sopiee, a London School of Economics PhD and head of a government think tank. He is more widely remembered as the man who took a full-page newspaper ad supporting Prime Minister Mahathir following US Vice President Al Gore‘s intemperate remarks during a state dinner supporting the refomasi movement. Prudent thing to do as his organization is dependent on the government for funding. More importantly, at that infamous dinner Nordin Sopiee was seen to applaud the vice president. Thus to local cynics, Nordin’s widely publicized action in taking out the ad was seen more as a crass display of bodek (sucking up to the powerful). His committee of 68 luminaries (some reports claimed 95; a committee member could not tell me the exact number) was widely lauded in the media.

The report is like other official papers – dry, more like a recipe book. There is little discussion of background information or references to primary sources and experiences of other countries. It correctly highlights the recent steady decline in the nation’s competitiveness. It stood at 17 in 1997, but slipped to 41 in the latest ranking (2001). While other factors certainly contribute to this precipitous slide, the report makes no references to them. Instead it focuses primarily on the inadequacies of the education system. In this the report is hardly comprehensive.

It makes scant reference to the evident decline of Malaysian universities. I am told that there would be a recommendation for yet another committee to look specifically at higher education. The only suggestion it has for universities is that they should review the salary scheme of its junior lecturers. Even here the committee is missing the mark. Our universities need to improve the pay of its academic staff at all levels.

One recommendation beyond education that caught my eye is for allowing local companies to import top talent, that is, foreigners earning in excess of RM20,000 per month should be given automatic work visa. I would go further; I would grant them permanent status. For these highly talented individuals, the demand for their skills is truly global. Malaysia must be willing to pay competitive salaries to attract them. While I applaud the committee for making this sensible recommendation, the committee then undermines this by putting a limit to the number of such individuals a company could hire. Surely if we value them, then more is better. Why the restrictions? The committee could not escape its parochialism in protecting Malaysians in these high-paying jobs. Malaysians with that kind of talent do not need such protection. The challenge is to entice them to remain at home.

The report rightly highlights the mediocre pay for teachers. Although Malaysian teachers earn as much as their American counterpart relative to the per capita GDP, the more important indicator is how well they are paid relative to other professions. When a tour guide or a fish hawker earns considerably more, then we have a problem. In Malaysia (and also in America) this is manifested by the fact that the profession no longer attracts the best and talented. With low pay comes low status.

In my The Malay Dilemma Revisited, I referred to Lat’s cartoons to illustrate this point. One sketch of a 1950s’ scene showed a schoolteacher in his sleek car, with a father and son looking on admiringly by the roadside. The next scene was of more recent vintage, and it showed a father driving his son to school in an expensive sedan, and forcing the schoolteacher, who was riding a decrepit motorcycle, off the road!

The report calls for across the board salary hikes. That would be laudable but prohibitively expensive. Instead Malaysia should have targeted increases to attract those with the most-needed skills: teachers of English, science, and mathematics. With a glut of teachers for Malay and Islamic Studies there is no point in increasing their pay. Even if we reduce it, there will be no shortage of applicants.

The committee is enamored with IT, and calls for bridging the digital divide by 2010. In its infatuation with computers the committee ignores other more glaring divide separating rural from urban schools – poor physical facilities and lack of quality teachers. To me these should be the highest priority, ahead of supplying IT. Many rural schools do not even have electricity, how can they have computers? Many still have double sessions, dilapidated libraries, and inadequate laboratories. I would fix those first.

The committee recommends that schools be provided with a manager to take care of the administrative chores thus freeing the headmaster to pay attention to professional and educational issues. I agree, provided that the manager is answerable to the headmaster and not to some bureaucrat in the ministry.

Another of its recommendations is that teachers at the secondary and upper primary levels be degree holders. I would settle for teachers only at the upper secondary level to be graduates. For others, a good teaching diploma should suffice. I would upgrade the quality of teachers’ colleges; this would be better and more cost effective way of enhancing the quality of teaching, rather than insisting that teachers have a degree. That would end up diluting the quality of our universities by diverting them to train the massive number of teachers. Look at America where former teachers’ colleges are now universities.

Today a graduate teacher from a local university has less professional skills and knowledge than a diploma-trained teacher from Kirby or Brinsford Lodge of the 1950s. It would be better and more effective to upgrade the teaching diploma than to cheapen a degree.

A major disappointment with the Brains Trust report is that it barely scratches the surface of the monumental problems facing Malaysian education. It does not address the basic problems of our institutions being tightly controlled by the ministry, with no room for them to grow professionally or develop their excellence and expertise.

Next: Reform in Other Countries

Grooming the Next Generation of Leaders

Jack Welch, the retired legendary chief executive of GE, related his less-than-pleasant task before leaving office of personally telling the three or four other capable candidates under him that they were not his choice to succeed him.

There are two points to this observation. The obvious is that GE under Welch had no shortage of capable talent for the top slot; the second, Welch’s acute sense of obligation (and class) to let the other accomplished contenders hear the bad news first and directly from him.

A common lament to my recent call for Abdullah Badawi to step down was the lack of solid candidates to succeed him, best expressed by one of the government’s backbencher in Parliament. Although when he said it, Zaid Ibrahim was merely trying to praise Abdullah Badawi, however awkwardly.

Grooming the next tier of leaders is one responsibility many leaders do not pay sufficient attention. Of all the prime ministers, only Tunku Abdul Rahman had acquitted himself well on this point; he had the capable Tun Razak.

Dynamic Duo of Razak and Ismail

For a while Tun Razak had Dr. Ismail as deputy prime minister. It reflected favorably not only on the caliber of these two distinguished Malaysians but also the prevailing climate in UMNO at the time that the two worked well together, the skills and personality of one complementing the other. In the political climate of today’s UMNO, there would be endless intrigues and Machiavellian maneuverings.

Their smooth rhythm was shattered with the unexpected death of Dr. Ismail. It could not have come at the worse possible time for Tun Razak, for he was at the time fighting his own personal battle against a deadly cancer. This fact was concealed from the public; Dr. Ismail was one of the few whom Tun Razak had confided his innermost secret. That was the kind of trust and confidence they had in one another, a combination and display rarely seen anywhere, or since.

Tun Razak displayed his astuteness in spotting talent on other than Dr. Ismail. The late Tun used his trips to the districts as opportunities to size up junior officers. He enticed many into politics, including some whose talent could easily have been overlooked because of their earlier less-than-stellar academic performance in school. Abdullah Ahmad for example, became his personal assistant. Later following the Tun’s death and the shift of political wind, Abdullah Ahmad was jailed under the Internal Security Act.

Talent, like water, finds its own level. On his release, Abdullah Ahmad went on to Cambridge; he later served as Special Ambassador to the United Nations. The Tun also saw the talent in one young Dr. Mahathir, and quickly brought him back into UMNO’s fold after the Tunku had expelled him earlier.

Not all of Tun Razak’s choices were right, of course. Struggling with his own lethal battle, we could readily excuse his choosing Hussein Onn to replace Dr. Ismail. Hussein’s subsequent tenure as Prime Minister was a forgettable one, but he had one enduring legacy: his choice of a deputy.

Selecting Mahathir was Hussein’s greatest contribution. It was ironic that later in the midst of UMNO’s internal squabbles he would repudiate what turned out to be his wisest decision!

To be sure, Hussein did not make that prescient choice on his own. The three then UMNO Vice-Presidents had essentially given him an ultimatum to pick one of them. It was a reflection of Hussein’s personal weakness and lack of leadership that he did not tell them off for usurping his prerogative.

Hussein displayed other ineptness as prime minister. Mahathir found out about his lucky future not directly from Hussein but through the latter’s press conference. Presumably the other two Vice-Presidents heard their piece of unhappy news likewise. Hussein lacked class in not personally informing them in private ahead of time.

Practice Does Not Make Perfect

Mahathir had three deputy prime ministers before Abdullah Badawi. The principle that practice makes perfect obviously eluded Mahathir, for he now openly regrets his choice. Instead of ruminating over it, he is trying hard to remedy the situation.

In picking Abdullah, Mahathir, like Hussein before him, did not venture beyond party tradition. Mahathir limited his choice to only the sitting UMNO Vice Presidents. By anointing Abdullah and discouraging contests in the two top slots (in the name of party “tradition”) Mahathir denied UMNO members their voice. More crucially, he denied the party a wider selection and the collective wisdom of its membership.

It is a delicious irony that while Mahathir endlessly exhorted Malays to break free from the suffocating bounds of our traditions, he was unable to liberate himself from the strictures of his own party!

Mahathir has one redeeming trait: determination. When he discovered late that Anwar Ibrahim was wanting as a would-be successor, he did not hesitate in correcting the error even though it was painful to him (and also Anwar), his party, and nation.

Whether Mahathir would be successful in rectifying this latest blunder (in selecting Abdullah) remains to be seen. He is now older and, more significantly, out of office. The only power he has is his considerable influence, personal conviction, and, not to be lightly dismissed, good health. Those are the very qualities lacking in Abdullah Badawi.

Abdullah’s Public Piety and “Mr. Clean” Facade

Abdullah’s public piety and “Mr. Clean” image is nothing more than a shrewdly crafted facade. The man’s character does not justify those descriptions.

Take his piety. Soon after becoming prime minister, he unashamedly indulged in a grand gesture of being Imam by leading his ministers in a widely publicized congregational prayer. The latest had him leading an even larger group after breaking fast. These are nothing more than a crass attempt at evoking the powerful images of our great Caliphs, giants who were not only political but also spiritual leaders.

Malaysians forget (or more correctly were never reminded) that Islamic Studies was not Abdullah’s first choice. He stumbled upon it because he could not handle the mathematics to pursue economics. Then, as today, Islamic Studies was a dumping ground for those not inclined for or incapable of rigorous academic pursuit.

Likewise his “Mr. Clean” image; he never had the opportunity before! Now that he is Prime (and Finance) Minister, he is furiously making up for lost time.

All previous prime ministers were magnanimous upon assuming office by pardoning prisoners, especially those held under the ISA. Abdullah granted none; so much for the charity of his Islam Hadhari.

As for his humility and frugality, this was a man who would not move into the official residence until it had undergone multimillion-dollar renovations. Apparently the décor was not up to his exquisite taste! To think that he could not even afford a house when he was dropped as a minister a while back.

Such profligacy reflects an aesthetic sophistication of a Marcos rather than the Kennedy.
The late Tun Razak agonized over putting in a swimming pool for his young children at the old Sri Perdana. He did not have to brag or publicize his frugality, humility, or piety. The fact that Abdullah has to means that he is anything but.

It is not just the citizens who were taken in by Abdullah’s carefully cultivated public persona, even the hardnosed Mahathir too bought into it. Mahathir mistook the man’s eager nodding to mean agreement when actually Abdullah was merely bidding his time as a raccoon would for the farmer to leave the chicken coup. Mahathir now publicly calls his successor a chronic liar. Any self-respecting man would take deep offence to that; Abdullah took it in stride.

Prevention Always Better Than Remediation

Jack Welch offers many insights on preventing such succession errors and the more general lesson of grooming the next tier of leaders. On his frequent visits to the periphery, Welch would ask his divisional heads to identify their promising junior officers. He would then size them up personally to see whether he agree with their superior’s assessment. Additionally he would them what they were doing to nurture those talent.

Whenever promising candidates were fast-tracked, Welch would also reward their immediate superiors. That would encourage them and others to develop the talent under them. It would also prevent the dirty trick prevalent in the Malaysian civil service where promising subordinates would be sent to obscure postings lest they become a threat to their superiors.

The civil service has an elaborate process for evaluating officers, but it is done in secret. When I was in government service, I made it a point to discuss my report with my young doctors individually and in private. There would be no point to the exercise if they were denied the valuable feedback. My senior colleagues pointedly told me that I was breaching the civil service code.

Such sessions benefited both parties; I had occasions to change my evaluations following them. Far from being dyspeptic encounters, they permitted me to know my junior officers better. Today I still get letters and e-mails from them, even those whom my evaluations had been less-than-rosy. I also bask in the reflected glory when they shine, especially those whom I had given glowing reports.

Had Malaysian leaders followed Welch’s example, they would now enjoy the luxury of having an abundance of leadership talent, and the nation would be spared the present embarrassment.